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Making Money in a Bear Market
When is a good time to invest in the stock market? The bottom of a bear market might seem like a terrible time. During the “Black Week” beginning October 6th, 2008 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,874 points, or eighteen percent, in its worst weekly decline ever. The S&P 500 fell more than twenty percent and the value lost was in the trillions of dollars. Investors fled the market in droves.
Why? Certainly the sub-prime mortgage crisis and subsequent bank failures were a significant cause. But many analysts also blame good old-fashioned panic. The stock market depends upon trust and a fundamental sense of optimism, and when these vanish, so do investors.
This isn’t the first dramatic bear market. At the end of trading on January 14, 2000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all-time high of 11,722. A two-and-a-half-year slide began, and on October 9, 2002 the Dow hit a five-year closing low of 7,286. It was a drop of 4,436 points-over thirty-seven percent. But the market rebounded, and by October, 2007 the Dow touched an all-time high above 14,110.
When stockholders are desperate to sell holdings that have value, conditions exist for buyers who are willing to buck the trend. As surely as the market fell, it will rise again. And investors who get in early and snatch up bargains will reap significant profits. Here are some historic examples.
• The Walt Disney Company (DIS). This entertainment giant fell to a low of $15.24 per share on September 27, 2002. If you had bought Disney the next day and kept your shares until May 18, 2007, you would have seen it rise to $36.02 per share. You would have increased your investment by 136% over four and one-half years. Very impressive! Since that time Disney stock has declined less than the overall market, and on October 3, 2008, Disney was trading at $29.54.
• Carnival Corporation (CCL). The cruise line leader hit a low on July 21, 2000, with shares selling at $19.25. The stock recovered and shot up to $57.63 per share on December 31, 2004. This was an increase of 200% in four and one-half years. On October 3, 2008, Carnival was selling at $32.74.
• Procter & Gamble (PG). On July 7, 2000, you could have bought the Cincinnati, Ohio household products giant for the bargain price of $27.44 per share. By December 14, 2007 the stock hit $73.90 per share, a seven and one-half year increase of 200%. Not too shabby. On October 16, 2008, the stock was trading for a high of $62.37 per share.
• Capital One (COF). The credit card company hit bottom on November 6, 2002, when you could have bought shares for $30.31 each. By March 10, 2006, three and one-half years later, the stock peaked at $89.92 per share. That’s an increase of 195%. On October 16, 2008, Capital One was trading at $34.91 per share. Analysts say there may be more trouble ahead for Capital One due to looming credit card account defaults.
• Archer Daniels Midland (ADM). On August 24, 2000, you could have purchased shares in the agriculture conglomerate for a rock-bottom price of $9.01 each. Four and one-half years later, on March 10, 2006, you could have sold those shares for $40.83 each. You would have made a profit of 350%. Try doing that anywhere else! On October 16, 2008, ADM was selling at $16.51 per share. Has it hit rock bottom again? Some investors will think so.
When the herd flees the market, savvy investors remember that the only way to make a profit in the stock market is to buy low and sell high. Guess what? The market is low, and quality stocks are on sale at low prices. Contact a qualified investment advisor and find those bargains.
© 2008 Thomas Hauck Communications Services.
About the Author
Thomas Hauck Communications Services provides a wide variety of writing and editing services for businesses and nonprofits. Visit us at www.thomashauck.net.
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